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Archive for October, 2011

The Responsibility of Choosing

Monday, October 24th, 2011

(excerpted from comments to the nation’s Community Action Agencies)

Good morning.  Thank you for inviting me to be with you today here this morning.  I’ve been asked to join you and talk for a bit about the connections between the work you do as Community Action Agencies and the challenges of neighborhood revitalization.

To get there I am going to detour a bit.  I want to start by drawing attention to an article in last week’s Washington Post.  There’s nothing special about it, nothing at all.

But I found it especially illuminating.  The title was “Jobless rate steady in DC, up in Md, and Va.”  The key piece of information was that the unemployment rate in DC was 11.1, third highest in the nation behind California and Nevada, while Maryland’s was 7.3 and Virginia’s 6.5. Embedded in this simple set of facts is an incredibly powerful lesson for us community developers, but a lesson that while essential, is one I suspect few of us are comfortable confronting.

So before I return to that article and that lesson and the discomfort that may be there, I want to detour a bit further.  Meanwhile, in the back of your minds, I’d ask you to start thinking about what these rather mundane statistics might have to tell us about our work as community developers. Here is a clue:  ask yourselves who lives in Washington, DC that unemployment would be almost two times Virginia’s?

In my line of work in low and very low income communities, one of the hardest challenges I face is the painful work of truth telling, which is, of course, the other half of the painful work of truth hearing.  I generally approach this work not with answers, but with questions, and over the years I have found that such an approach can be unsettling.  For example my grandmother is quite poor.  She lives in a trailer in southern Louisiana.  She’s had eleven children.  Nine are poor.  But if it is unacceptable for me as her grandson to ask with moral overtones how come she had so many children when she never had money, I can only imagine how off limits that line of inquiry is for you on the front lines who aren’t family.

At the core of so much of the work are a range of hard-to-hear realities for many communities, and, I suspect, on a one on one level, for many families and individuals.  Which tees up my first question to you this morning: What do you think are some of those hard-to-hear realities?  Who is served by naming them?  Who or what is served by saying nothing?  What is your experience embracing or dodging these sorts of questions?

Before I relate the content of that Washington Post article, let me tell you a little bit about a collection of five neighborhoods in Norfolk, Virginia and my work there the last few years.

Norfolk is a medium sized American city of roughly 300,000 people.  It has a long standing economic relationship with the US military.  It’s a coastal city.  To give you some orientation, it is part southern, as you’d expect, with all that implies. And I mean all. It is part military, with all that implies.  And of course, it is coastal.

In recent years Norfolk worked through much of the less successful side of its urban renewal history, and has done a truly splendid job with its downtown.

In several instances it has implemented a real commitment to high quality urban planning and design and architecture.  It shows.  And there’s a been a real focus on economic diversification, so what once was almost entirely a military-based economy now has a substantial financial sector, and an emergent higher education component.

The “old” Norfolk has for 20 years been slowly evolving into the “new” Norfolk.  It is not there yet, but the upsides and downsides of such a transition are there to see.  And so here is my second question for you community developers this morning: What do you think those upsides and downsides might be?  What are the implications?  Who wins, so to speak?  Who loses?  What do you suppose might be some hard conversations you can imagine having as community developers trying to guide Norfolk forward?

Now, part of the process Norfolk has gone through since the 1970s meant revitalizing several newly prominent near downtown neighborhoods.  The main one is named Ghent.

Ghent is a fabulous near downtown residential neighborhood with two high performing commercial corridors and an intact historic housing fabric.  There’s mostly single family homes, but enough medium density older 1920s apartment buildings to give the neighborhood serious retail purchasing power owing to numbers, provided residents are of means.  It’s neatly circumscribed between downtown and a set of rail yards along an older industrial area that today is mostly benign and which holds great development potential.

The commitment to good physical planning principles in Norfolk the last three decades is evident in much of the mixed income housing that’s there in Ghent, and consequently this part of Norfolk is quite racially diverse.

But you should have some of the rest of the story.  It is important that I identify some of the other “truths” about Ghent.  For in each “truth” are elements of lessons for each of us as we think about neighborhood revitalization, and your role as change agents for Community Action Agencies, and the hard-to-ask questions, and hard-to-hear realities.

    • One is that there are no poor people there.  It’s too expensive.  And as a matter of actual and de facto policies, poor people are not wanted.  I don’t want to leave this dangling and suggest this is good or bad.  For now I am just telling you a story.
    • Two is that there used to be poor people there.  When that was true, Ghent was not a thriving neighborhood by some standards; but acceptable if not thriving according to other standards.  Here I am locating yet another question:  What is an acceptable normal for a neighborhood?  Who gets to decide? How is this related to the work of neighborhood revitalization?

    • A third truth about the Ghent neighborhood in Norfolk is that while any actual displacement of poor families from Ghent occurred many years ago, the bitterness of displacement both continues to be felt, and felt not even by people who were themselves actually displaced.

Rather, the “feeling” is not one owing to having been displaced but rather, more of a shared-lot sense by a class of people who today have no personal recollection of displacement, but who feel absolutely certain that any improvement in their neighborhoods can only come about at the cost of their removal.

Removing poor blacks from Ghent is like taking the poor white Irish out of South Boston:  both clear away huge impediments to one kind of economic development while simultaneously raising a whole host of questions about what might constitute community economic development.  And we have not even touched on the moral railing in all of this, where we’d try to answer the question:  what is just?

    • And four is that this “empathic fear” as I have come to call it – and which I see in every distressed neighborhood in America, and that I know to exist in the minds and hearts of the communities of people living in those neighborhoods – constitutes a massive part of what holds many of these communities back.  By this I mean we have a paradox deeply embedded in the challenge of community development:  our “customers” are on the outside of the economic mainstream looking in.  Yet like Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, who never really left Kansas, and who all along possessed the power of the red slippers, the keys to prosperity are far more internal than perhaps we give credit for.  Which is relevant because our tools – housing tools, financial literacy tools, weatherization tools to name a few – only constitute – at best – a helpful hand into the mainstream.  A more affordable home, a greater capacity to make wise financial decisions, and reduced home heating costs are just three examples of assistance that offers no guaranteed entry into the mainstream.

And herein is the paradox:  poor people are on the outside of the economic mainstream – whether the measure is income or wealth – but the tools we have, while helpful, don’t really get them across the threshold.  For that, poor people have to make changes they rarely seem to make, and which society – and our field especially – rarely if ever seems to require.  We have developed a whole kit of tools that help accommodate being poor, but to get further than that requires asking some pretty tough questions and raising some pretty tough issues.  And by tough I mean uncomfortable.

In my view this is one of the great on-going challenges we face in the field of community development:  figuring out where “place”s ends and “people” begins, and, vice versa, where “people” end and “place” begins.

Of course this is all the more difficult because in truth they cannot be separated.  They are distinct.  We have work to do that is about real estate.  And we have work to do that is about the people who own and rent that real estate.  Our imperative therefore includes figuring this out, and in doing so, one thing I’ve concluded after so many years working on revitalization challenges, is that while we’ve done a great job teaching people how to collect food stamps, we’ve done a terrible job teaching them how to grow and cook spinach.  So now as you begin to connect the dots, what I am really starting to get at is this relationship between people and place, between a person’s sense of self and how they relate to their home and their block and their school and their shopkeepers, and how, in turn, these homes and streets and parks and stores say something about life there in that neighborhood.  So my next question is this:  What signals are being sent?  Who “reads” these signals?  Do these signals matter?  And if so, how and why?  If they don’t matter, then what are you saying about markets?

So going back to that Washington Post article, remember that the unemployment rate in DC is above 11 percent and 6.5 in Virginia.  More than the numbers is the larger narrative we have to pay attention to.  What accounts for so many in DC being unemployed by comparison, especially when this is one large and melted market of jobs and labor supply?

Why is this so important?  How is this central to community development, and how could it be central to your work in particular, those of you on the front lines working with people, seeing people’s credit scores, knowing the details of their lives, their hopes, their challenges?  I want you to imagine my grandmother and her 11 children knowing that she is poor and so are nine of her kids.  Where does “she” begin” and where does the “neighborhood” she lives in end?  Try to imagine her.  Now try to imagine her trailer.  Now try to imagine the area of town she lives in.

When I reflect on these complex issues, I’ve come to some conclusions.

One is that poverty as a problem to solve is a very different problem than affordable housing. Poverty is not having money and not having ready access to money and not having the means to make money.  If you build housing that is less expensive, you have helped a family in the following way.  You have reduced their housing costs, and indirectly increased what’s leftover for something else.  Instead of having to choose between rent and food, or rent and clothing, more can go into those other things.

Is this important?  Of course it is.  That’s not in question.  But what is in question are the deeper more relevant issues at hand.

Let’s suppose we do reduce the cost of the housing, say, from $640 a month to $550 a month.  We can do this through a variety of mechanisms.  For example, we can buy less costly land on which to build our new apartment building.  Suppose in one scenario the land is $1M.  If we build 100 units, that works out to $10,000 per unit in land costs.  If we amortize that over 30 years at today’s rates that’s about $60 a month for the land.  In another scenario in a better part of town, the land costs $2.5M.  In that case the land is now $150 per month per unit.  The difference per month to the renter is $90 a month.  But let’s look further at that example.  In the first scenario, on less costly land, we have to ask “why is this land less expensive?”  Invariably the answer is because the site is not in as great demand as the other site.  Which begs the question:  “why not?”

We know the answer to this.  What we must explore are the implications.

So why is parcel B less costly than parcel A?  Probably parcel B is in a less desired part of town.  It turns out that what makes it less desirable is a big part of the answer to the larger question, the one about there “place” ends and “people” begins, and vice versa.

A less desirable place is going to have fewer amenities.  The stores that are near this site will be tired.  They will be run-down.  It is very unlikely that they will communicate confidence and vibrancy.  It’ll be near fewer if any quality stores.  It’s be near fewer if any quality parks.  It might be near some things that people just would rather be away from like a noisy highway or a factory, or drug dealing in those parks.  What we have to understand is that characteristics of the surrounding environment will help set price.

This presents us with a dilemma.  All else being equal, which parcel to choose.  And something we have to explore at some point: why?

Suppose we choose the more expensive lot.  That is going to give us more costly units.  We can do a project, and that may have value in some broader sense, but the more expensive lot generates $640 a month rents, or an apartment a single mom can afford who earns roughly $11/hour.  But if we buy the cheaper lot, we can generate a $550 a month rent and that means someone earning about $9.50/hour can afford that apartment.

Why do this?  Well, the cheaper land allows that single mom to pay $1,100 less in rent in this hypothetical example.  And that’s real money.

Let’s take this a step further.  What are the other ways we can alter the equation?

Another is to add more units.  Let’s say instead of 100 units, we go up another floor and develop 130 units.  In this case the land cost /unit cost is now $7,700, way below what it was when we penciled out 100 units and land cost/unit was $10,000.  When we amortize this, our costs go down from $60/month to $44.  Now we can move my $550/month rent down to $534/month, and that means someone earning $9.25/hr.  We’ve created a slightly denser building, and developed it on an undesirable lot, but we have accomplished two things.  First we created 130 units of affordable housing, and 130 is a lot more than 100.  Second, we reduced rents from $640/month on the costlier lot to $534 in the denser building on the cheaper lot.  This allows the single mom who’s our client to now potentially pocket another $192 a year, so over a year she really now has an additional $1,400 in savings.

What might she do with this extra $1,400 that we’ve created through a focus on land price and density?  Over five years at current interest rates that’s more than $7,000!  This is getting to be serious money.

By buying the cheaper lot and by going denser, we’ve effectively put $7,000 in Susan Johnson’s pocket.  With this she can buy a car.  She can put down $1,000 on a $65,000 condominium, and save the other $6,000.  She can do a lot.  And suppose we have been especially thoughtful and structured an IDA match.  We can quickly imagine Susan Johnson being in a very different position five years down the road.  That’s one way to look at it, and an important one.  It’s based on real data.  It’s aspirational and optimistic.  But not in entirely unrealistic territory.

But two questions quickly surface.

The first has to do with the project.  We went from a project of 100 apartments for very low income families to 130.  And we went from a project on costly land in a desirable part of town to more affordable land in a less desired area.  To get rents as low as possible we’ve also spent a bit less on landscaping and on materials.  We have created the following cocktail:  on the upside, we have 130 units of housing for families with very meager wages and little to no savings.  In short, they have few options in most metropolitan regions.  Also on the upside we have more than $900,000 in collective equity held by 130 families, all else being equal, and there’s enormous power in that, used properly.  But what about the downside?  How wise is putting 130 families at $7-10/hr in one building?  History would suggest not very wise at all.  We will have crime.  We will have behaviors that send signals to the wider market.  We will have very limited retail purchasing power.  The commercial strip nearby will grow tired.  Plus the low rents came in some respects owing to lesser quality construction materials, and so the building will have more than normal wear and tear.  And as the site – remember the more affordable of the two – was in an undesirable part of town to begin with, overall demand for that part of town has likely gone down.  So your challenge is to decide which course to pursue:  more or less affordability?

The second has to do with Susan Johnson.  She is at $9 an hour.  But in all likelihood this is only one part of the story.  Just like the story of the Ghent neighborhood in Norfolk, Susan Johnson is complicated.

It turns out that she has not one child but three.  Her FICO score is in the low 600s.  She does not know how to grow or cook spinach.  Her boyfriend who sometimes provides extra cash almost got a job at a local company but failed a urinalysis.  She is 29 but she reads at a 6th grade level  She has very low level math skills.  In the 130 unit building we have built, she is likely to be across the corridor from Albert Robinson.  He’s an extremely hard worker, that is when he shows up, and his employers are generally pleased when he shows up, except that he rarely if ever shows up on time.  And when he is home, his unit generally has a lot of his kids stuff out front, and he usually parks up on the front lawn rather than in the driveway.  Twice the past year the police had to show up at Mr. Robinson’s after neighbors called about the yelling and screaming late at night.

So what’s really emerging is a very intertwined story of people and place.  We may be using property cost reductions to achieve affordability.  We may be aiming at affordability to chip away at poverty.  But if our main tools for reducing costs – density and resulting volume on one hand, and less desirable locations on the other – result in driving down demand by the market to join that community, we may have obtained affordability at the price of a community’s health.

Which brings us to the central question you must face as you contemplate people and place:  what problem are you trying to solve?  Are you trying to intervene in the lives of families in ways that increase their chances of joining the economic mainstream?  Are you intervening in the lifecycle of a neighborhood to grow value there, and as a result, increase wealth?

I’d argue that fitting the two together requires not that we do one or the other.  Nor does it require that we do them both.

Actually it requires that we do something else entirely.

It requires that we focus not on job creation per se.  Nor on housing development per se.  Nor on market stabilization either.  Not in the social context of mainly poor people.

Rather it s that we focus on capacity.  The capacity of the people we care about to do well.  Here’s the paradox for you who work for Community Action Agencies.

All the money is in housing and neighborhood revitalization.  Yet your core competencies – working with people – have never been more important.  I am not saying to ignore neighborhood revitalization.  I am not saying to ignore anti-poverty work.  I am saying that your special skills are actually the glue that holds the whole together.

While bricks and mortar are important, getting Susan Johnson to not have a fourth child is going to do more for her and her community.  While intervening in a looming foreclosure is critical to stemming an outflow of value from a neighborhood, really boring in on how the Robinson family spent money on Direct TV and a new truck instead of making mortgage payments is of equal if not greater value.

Let me close with a short story about another community I work in, this a rural former mining town in Arizona with very high rates of poverty and a range of cross cultural challenges, not least which is the challenge of the obesity epidemic on the Tohono O’odom Nation.  In the town I’m referring to, there are three cultures – Hispanic, Anglo, and Indian.  The history is not pleasant, with all the racial ugliness you may imagine.

In the mid 1980s the copper mine closed and with it went half the town’s population and any meaningful wages.  This town has slowly tried to rebuild itself.

One of the great challenges in this isolated rural town with high rates of poverty is physical health.  Not only is this a poor community but obesity levels are among the highest in the United States, surpassing even those of Louisiana and Mississippi and Alabama.

Some have called this a food desert.  Like much of rural upstate NY and rural western PA, for example, it can be easier to find Twinkies and Ho-Hos at the store than fresh vegetables.  Or in this case, what is known as fried bread, a kind of deep fried trans fat sugar bomb preferred by Native Americans.

But two things worry me considerably about such labels.

First, while I concede choice is better elsewhere, I do not believe the rhetoric that people don’t eat fresh produce because there isn’t fresh produce in the stores.  In my experience, the fresh produce is, in fact, there.  In this small town there’s an aisle for Ho-Hos and a section for produce, with chiles and corn and fresh lettuces and squash and Brussels’s Sprouts and the like 12 months of the year.  The produce is there for anyone who wants it.

Second, a place being called a food desert seems like a very convenient way to say that people no longer have the power to choose.  That somewhere along the line the we human beings in 21st century lost our individual capacity to make choices and be responsible for those choices.  It seems to me that people are no more forced to watch a program on television they dislike than they are required to eat Twinkles and cheese dogs and fried bread.

The key word here is “easier”.

Why?  Because while it can be easier to find fatty and salty processed foods than to find tomatoes and broccoli and apples, it is not impossible in this little Arizona town to find fresh vegetables.  The minute we cross the line and locate the responsibility for a poor diet with the grocer is the moment we have given up our own agency.  I am reminded of that great Alice Walker quote, “the most common way people give up their power, is by thinking they don’t have any.”

It is true that the grocery store is not great.

But it is also true that it sells flour and milk and yeast and salt, and that every home in town has fresh drinking water.  It turns out that these are the ingredients for bread.

And in this store there’s spinach and dried beans, great sources of iron and protein and vitamin A.  And this same store carries canned tomatoes which supply extremely valuable lycopene.  In the refrigerated section they carry eggs, which can be scrambled, baked, souffled, and even pickled, and in any event provide a great source of protein rich calories.  And just in the next aisle are limes and lemons and the vitamin C they have, and fresh thyme and cilantro.  Even in this poor community, among the poorest in the United States.

And wouldn’t you know it.  Eggs and tomatoes and chiles and cilantro make a fairly decent meal.  Water and oil and flour and tortillas are pretty easy.  And half a mile away is a hardware store that sells cast iron skillets for $8.99

Why am I telling this story?  Because the obesity epidemic is being described as a function of green vegetable availability, and not a derivative of choices and knowledge.  Because we find it easier to talk about all that is missing in the lives of poor families than all that is present.  Because we have become accustomed to creating food stamp programs instead of “this is how you cook” programs.

We don’t have food deserts.  We have an accountability problem.

For the world to change, our communities must change.  For our communities to change, we have to ask hard questions.  We have to push against the commonly held view that to do so is somehow blaming the victim.  Somehow making fun of the fat person.  Somehow beyond the pale.

We’re in a fix of our own making.  We know the way out.

You in this room are one of the few groups in America with the software to do this and the hardwiring to do it right.

You can build housing, and we need that.  And you can focus your considerable talents on neighborhood revitalization.  And we need that too.

But what we really need is a nation of people who can grow their own vegetables when the grocery isn’t so terrific, and in the event the sun’s not shining, we need a nation of people willing to break a few eggs.

Bricks, Mortar, and Spinach

Tuesday, October 18th, 2011

Rethinking Community Development in an Era of Policy and Market Uncertainty

It is time for an New Kind of Community Development altogether.

Yes, we should rethink what it is we are doing.  It is time for thoughtful community developers to advocate for wholesale change within our ranks.  It is no longer sufficient to work at the edges:  the underlying conceits of the “community development ’system’” work against actual realization of safe and stable neighborhoods, stable and thriving families, and housing in a proper and sustainable context.  I am suggesting that the combination of our history and what we have accomplished, what we have failed to get done, tomorrow’s scarce resource environment, and today’s uncertainty all warrant really going back to the drawing board as community developers.

And when I say going back to the drawing board I do not mean rethinking how to make the New Market Tax Credit better, or the HOME program more effective.  I mean throwing them both out and starting over.  And I don’t mean throwing out HOME and NMTCs but keeping the LIHTC and CDBG.  I mean throwing them all out.  Hard to imagine a more hackneyed approach to really tackling neighborhood distress than the alphabet soup of AHP, NSP 1,2,3, and surely (eventually) 87, QAP, EITC, and HOPE VI.

Here is what I do know.

    • If we shut down HUD tomorrow, if we eliminated all the tax credit programs we use to stimulate housing or historic preservation or jobs, and if started fresh, we could hardly do worse.  That alone should be enough to scare the ever living you know what out of every one in the field wed to the status quo of chasing HUD and related dollars because, well, that’s what we’ve always done.
    • If we are serious about community development – whether as housing professionals or social service workers or leadership development experts or sustainability advocates – we’ve been at this long enough to know some things.  It may have once been the case when without data and knowledge we designed policies and programs for which we are to be forgiven.  But that is no longer true.  We know quite a bit about what works and what does not.

It’s my view that community development as we have come to think about and practice it no longer works.

    • Not when one of four households in America is in real trouble.  Not when we have another 7.5 million foreclosures to address.
    • Not when the city-suburb split in high school graduation rates is so troubling.
    • Consider that in Baltimore, two in three will not complete high school.  In Philadelphia the figure is one in two.  In Atlanta, three in five.  Yet in the surrounding suburbs of Baltimore, 81 percent get a high school diploma.  Philadelphia, 82 percent.  Atlanta, 70.

We community developers are circumscribed within a fundamentally flawed if not broken system of interrelationships and assumptions, and dependencies.   So long therefore as our response is reactionary, it’s hard to see how we can succeed.

I also know this.  Even if we all together don’t know what in place of the current system would comprise a new one, the starting place is to admit we have a problem.  And the opportunity to make this admission and start rethinking is now.  Now when we are staring at $2T in cuts over the next ten years, much from HUD and Treasury and entitlement programs upon which community development now depends.

What do I mean when I say it is both necessary that we rethink community development and do so now?

We have to begin by asking ourselves what is it that we are trying to accomplish?

When I started in this field my first project was the development of a shelter for the homeless.  I’d come to Washington with no firmer a view of what I wanted to accomplish other than to make a difference.  I now believe that is among the worst and most irresponsible of all rationale’s for community development.  Lacking any focus or sense of cause and effect, a generalized notion of making a difference means satisfaction can come from doing anything.  This I believe is part of the DNA of community development that must be changed.  Doing anything is not good enough.  When there were homeless men on the streets early in my career, the main reason was not lack of affordable housing.  It was deinstitutionalization.  Nor was it lack of shelter beds.  It was drugs and alcohol and mental illness.  But how did we respond?  By building a building.  By spending money on housing units.  And how did we decide how many to build?  Well, it was extremely scientific.  There were a lot of bums on benches so there must be a need for a lot of beds.  When we were done we ‘d built a 1,200 bed shelter for the homeless.  But we’d also killed an entire section of a city, aggregating more than a thousand troubled men in one spot.  Had we paused to ask a very simply question – what problem are we trying to solve – we might well have focused not on bricks and mortar, but services, and if on bricks and mortar, maybe a few dozen smaller places.  I can’t say this for sure.  In fact I believe even with the pause button on, the focus would have been on building a building.  Why?  Because it was easier.

Later as a developer of affordable rental housing, the projects were apartment buildings.  Some new construction.  Some rehabilitated stocks.  In those cases the job was to address the growing affordability challenges in the 1990s in strong markets.  Only we didn’t confine our production to strong markets.  National policies were created in response to exploding housing costs in LA, San Francisco, NY, Chicago, and DC.  Suddenly, tools designed to work in those markets were available to cities everywhere.  Buffalo and Detroit got to building new apartments, there being a national affordable housing shortage.  The problem was – and remains – that housing markets are extremely local.  You can’t have a nationally defined problem.  Heck you can’t have a state defined problem.  Someone working for $11 an hour in B&S Auto Parts in the Asheville area doesn’t care about housing costs in Wrightsville Beach.  Yet that’s how we developed housing, based largely on average calculations of supply and demand and housing cost in relation to household income.  The Enterprise Foundation took one look at the growing gap between housing costs and wages in the Baltimore area and concluded that the right thing to do was to build affordable housing in Baltimore.  Of course at the time Baltimore had more than 40,000 vacant housing units and the value to income ratio in the city was about 2-1, so in fact there was no need for more affordable housing in Baltimore.

In the suburbs?  You bet.  But is that where HUD dollars went?  Is that where tax credit equity went?  Is that where the CDCs were started?  Is that where affordable rental housing was built?  Had the City, or Enterprise, or the HUD regional office, or Senator Mikulski’s office just pressed the pause button for a just a second, they would have drawn two conclusions.  First, in the City of Baltimore, the problem was low wages resulting from low education levels which attached to a poor quality labor force, low levels of job creation, and a need for economic development.  Second, in the suburbs the problem was job creation – and often service sector job creation – amid the absence of any affordable rental product.  Across the region the problem was congestion owing to jobs-housing spatial mismatches.  And throughout the region was a deeply held view that affordable housing was public housing, and public housing was dangerous housing where black people lived.

Do I believe a smarter more granular development strategy would have resulted had we all stopped to think about it?  No.  If one part of our DNA as community developers is a generalized notion of doing good, another is that we tend to do good along the path of least resistance, and it is this path that almost never results in meaningfully changing the underlying governing variables that require our attention.  So why did we build affordable housing in Baltimore where it was not appropriate?  Because it was easier.  Our bar has always been too low as community developers.  To make a difference.  To make sure the homeless are in from the cold.  Our field has become a collection of accommodation specialists.  And our advocates on Capitol Hill fierce voices for meaningless tinkering at the edges.

Still later, the issues moved from responding to homelessness and then affordability, to the broader palliative so creatively labeled sustainability.  First with New Urbanism.  Then with Smart Growth.  Then the Transect.  Then Green Jobs.  Then LEED approved design.  Rather than confine the genuine benefits of New Urbanist theories to issues of suburban retrofit where they belong, or of Smart Growth to regional carrying capacity, these and their cousin gestalt became codewords for the 1990s version of Modernism, which of course is just the architectural term for Sir Thomas More’s fictional island in the Atlantic. We applied all manner of building codes to what were, and largely remain social problems.  Is it any wonder that the banal cul de sacs of the suburbs still produce literate, well-behaved kids who graduate from high school and go on to prosperous careers while the kids of the inner city remain far outside the economic mainstream, lacking not just what should be taught in school (reading and writing) but what should be a foundational element of home life:  showing up on time for work, being able to pass a urine test, getting along with others, thinking critically and creatively.

The problem has never been that kids in tough rural areas lack for front porches and walkability.  It’s never been the case that young boys and girls in West Durham can’t walk to school.  It’s that they are being raised by parents who don’t have jobs, and who often don’t have jobs because they never graduated from high school, and who didn’t graduate from high school because they had parents who never did, either.  We can green the jobs.  We can LEED certify the buildings.  We can implement form based codes.  We can even require picket fences.  But until our kids read at grade level, and until they delay having kids until they are married, and until they delay marriage until they are employed, our challenges as community developers are not likely tackled with more housing products, no matter how green they are, and no matter how many times Van Jones says it’s a beautiful feedback loop of hiring and employment and sustainability.

This is not to pick on housing development or Van Jones.  Housing development is needed.  And green housing is preferable.  And deep shades of green most preferable of all.

But what we really need is an affordable housing development systems that make sense inside a sensible community development system.

To build such a system, we have to not be content to simply respond to the crazy times we are in by advocating to protect the monies we have become used to.  Heck, that’s what the “affordable housing lobby” is all about. We can do better.  Instead we have to think about housing differently.  And this means asking some questions.

First, why are we building new housing?  Who is the customer?

Second, when we build new housing, or rehabilitate older stocks, who are our neighbors?  What is the resulting market we are helping to reshape?  What kinds of characteristics will define that new market?

Third, what is the scale of analysis that confirms need?  Are we working in response to problems defined at the block level, the neighborhood level, the city level, the region?  What?

Fourth, is the housing the real goal?  Is our goal economic development of the family for which a more affordable house payment is our aim?  Is the goal access to equity for first time owners?  Can these goals be achieved alternatively?

Fifth, how is the goal being delivered?  Are there better delivery devices out there?  In some places the private sector may well be especially suited to deliver a great product.  In others perhaps it is the non profit sector.  In still others maybe it is a redevelopment agency or a housing authority.

These are just some of the questions that would have to be asked if we were aiming to have a coherent housing system designed to work for working families that made sense.

And that would still leave us with the requirement to rethink the community development system in which housing work would exist.

For example, is the goal – as many of the sophomores at the University of Iowa would have had us believe during the caucus in 2008 when they voted for some amorphous sense of Hope – just to make an undifferentiated difference, or something tangible?

Is community development about eradicating poverty forever?

Or just helping the Johnson family move out of a trailer in Tyron and get into a more dignified home closer to a job in Hendersonville?  If it is really about addressing poverty, is the focus of work on getting Tonya Johnson’s reading skills up, or making sure she knows where the food bank is?  Any honest assessment of the wider community development system would have to acknowledge that we’ve done a great job teaching people how to collect food stamps, but a terrible job teaching them how to grow spinach.

I suggest the problem isn’t that we don’t know how to build a good system, but often that we aren’t focused on the problem we want to solve.

In the Johnson’s case, who may indeed have a housing challenge, the problem may be that she hans’t a clue about gardening and cooking, doesn’t know how to read at a level necessary to get the job that is available, can’t pass a urine test, is unmarried, and is about to have a third child.  While there may be, and probably is an affordable housing problem here to tackle, I’d submit we can fix that and still wind up in trouble.  If Pruit Igoe means anything, surely it is this.

Which brings me to the test of any new system – housing or otherwise – I believe we must now start building.  When we have used the tools we are so good at creating, have we triggered a result where the there is fundamental lasting change?

Let me give you an example.  In one of my client communities – this in Louisiana – Habitat for Humanity has been very productive.  So productive in fact they have 15% of the housing market.  It is also the case that while the structures they built replaced shacks, it is also true their structures are well on their way to becoming shacks themselves.  And it is likewise true that 95% of the crime in this one community comes from the new Habitat homes, the owners of whom haven’t a clue about gardening and cooking, don’t know how to read at a level necessary to get the job that is available, can’t pass a urine test, are unmarried, and are about to have a third child.  This is not to indict Habitat.  Nor residents with many difficult challenges.  It is, however, to be candid.  With a few exceptions, this is what we have created in our housing systems because we ask only that housing get built, and we ask only that housing get built because at the outset we define the problem – and the resulting work – incorrectly.

Consider that when I started in this field, the five poorest states from 45th to 50th were New Mexico, West Virginia, Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi.  Today the five poorest states from 45th to 50th are New Mexico, Alabama, Louisiana, West Virginia, and Mississippi.  These happen also to be the five states with the lowest Science and Engineering Readiness or SERI scores.  The three fattest states?  West Virginia, Alabama, and Mississippi.  I assure you in all these cases we’ve built a lot of housing and issued a lot of food stamps.

Meanwhile Baltimore has 25,000 vacant housing units and the Enterprise Foundation wants to build more. Of course they will be green!

Buffalo has 28,000 vacant housing units and the City has a plan to demolish 50 a year.  That’ll work!   In 560 years Buffalo’s supply imbalance will about right, provided that is that it stops losing population, that is; but given that Buffalo has lost an average of 12% of its base every ten years since Eisenhower was President I am not holding my breath.

In some instances, there has been extraordinary success. The work of Don Terner and later Carol Gallant at BRIDGE.  Martin Eakes and Stephanie Barnes Simms work at Self Help in Durham, and Mountain Housing right here.  But they are the extreme exception.

While these are indeed fast-changing times, and while there is much uncertainty, I am not ready to agree that today things are any more uncertain than before.

Pick whatever period you wish.  Desegregation and Jim Crowe.  The emergence and implementation of the Great Society.  The coming to fruition of 40 years of anti-New Deal backlash under the rubric of Reagan style federalism.  Soft vanilla urban initiatives under Bush and Clinton.  Deindustrialization.  Loss of mill and factory jobs.

We’ve gone from red-lining, to the testimony of Gale Cincotta and the rise of community development lending.  We’ve gone from building new public housing shaped by the church of Corbusier, to tearing it down.  From large and lethargic public agencies to small and ineffective nonprofits funded by larger and more lethargic public agencies.

We’ve taken our eye off the ball and as a consequence, things are very much like they have always been.

  • After the Civil War, the poorest states in our re-connected Union were Mississippi, Louisiana, and  Alabama.  150 years later, these are still our poorest states.  This is not to say great accomplishments have not been realized like the transformation of Greenville-Spartanburg through BMW, or the Research Triangle Park, or the emergence of a clean Birmingham.  But it is largely the case that were there was poverty there is poverty.  It is largely the case that where markets were dysfunctional, they remain dysfunctional.
  • Since the creation of HUD, and despite $500B in community development spending the last 25 years, East Baltimore is arguably worse for the wear.  South Baton Rouge as weak as ever.  Houston’s Fifth Ward distressed.  East St. Louis, Flint, Gary.  Deracinated.  Pick the city.
  • 100,000 Habitat for Humanity houses, and countless Junior League and other such types content with their donation of time later, and few to zero of the communities where poor families have benefited from such largesse are measurably better.

There are numerous counter arguments of course, and they deserve a hearing.

We can – and should point to the good work that LISC and Enterprise and others have done.  The production volume facilitated by the Low Income House Tax Credit.  The rise of the community development corporation.  It’s a long list we can create if we are trying to disprove my contention that the system is broken.

The larger point I want to make is that combined – today’s turbulence and its specific nature, and the constancy of distress in certain markets and certain families – we have more than enough data to convincingly assert that the time has come for us to reinvent community development.

What would a new kind of community development look like?  For starters, not very much at all like it is today.

Now the dominant metric is outputs.  The number of meetings we attend and the number of units we produce.  We must shift to outcomes.

When we make the shift to an outcome orientation, we no longer are focused on how many units we create, but how they function in the wider market.  Once we start to think about housing in the context of markets, we confront a whole new set of challenges far more difficult that the one’s we now use to frame our work.

    • In a market context we have to worry about collateral.  Therefore our units have to be very high quality.
    • In a market context we have to think about acquisition costs, and so we have to look for affordable sites.
    • But affordable land or buildings are usually affordable because they are in locations that aren’t desirable.  Therefore we have to think about the implications of that.
    • We now have to think about resale value in ten and 20 years. Therefore we have to think about capital replacement costs, as well, and that means we now have to think about income.  Therefore we have to raise the rents.
    • And if we are in the affordable housing business, we have to therefore think about how to raise rents without creating the situation we’re in business to fix.

Well it turns out that concentrating a lot of low income people in one place is directly correlated with getting to low rents.  It’s also the case that procuring lousy land is also correlated with low rents.  However, these can easily become prescriptions for the delivery of ticking time bombs.

You may all be saying to yourselves, “not me…not my organization.”  But the truth is most CDCs have bills to pay that only get paid with HUD’s CHDO dollars, CDBG resources, proceeds from tax credit projects, or grants from foundations that haven’t a clue about how to development markets but which are mission driven to help poor people.  So as a matter of course this is exactly what we build – problems for some other generation to cope with, either in the form of a decayed structure, or residents who still can’t read, or both.

My prescription is that we have to become slaves to outcomes.

But know this:  such an approach can be very unsatisfying.

For a focus on outcomes means making hard – really hard choices.  And when we have fewer resources, those choices become even more maddeningly hard.   Indeed I submit it is precisely because outcomes are so hard that we avoid focusing on them to the degree such challenges as poverty and neighborhood distress and housing affordability remain.

Consider that if we can strengthen the neighborhood by building a mixed income project, but in so doing we deliver 14 affordable units but not 34, we are, in effect, choosing to not help 20 poor families.  We are, in effect, choosing the stability of the neighborhood and the future of the project and the life trajectories of those 14 over an alternative route.  I know which one I would recommend but that doesn’t make it easy, and it doesn’t make it right.  But what we have now is a landscape of lots of units in lots of projects housing a lot of people unable to do a lot of basic things, which, as it turns out, are the necessary building blocks for succeeding in life:  being able to read, being able to grow and cook spinach, being able to pass a urine test, being able to wait to get married until later in life, and being able to wait to have kids until the marriage can handle such pressures.

We have to show a willingness to confront these challenge so the turbulence we are in now is not wasted.

We are at an inflection point in capitalism, in urban and industrial policy, and so too should we community developers be thinking along revolutionary lines.  In my 20 years in community development I am sorry to say that the central hallmark of the field is the constant messing around at the edges, the regular filing and sanding of existing programs.

We have developed some incredible tools, like the Earned Income Tax Credit and the New Market Tax Credit.  But even these are rather more pointed towards accommodating the status quo of poverty and distress than alleviating it.

Why?  Because the status quo breeds system contentedness and challenging this means pushing against a whole assortment of assumptions.

Suppose our work for the next 10 or so minutes was to paint by numbers, to fill in where needed.  What questions would have to be answered?

Certainly one set has to do with outcomes.  With goals.  What are we working towards?  What would success look like?

Is success fewer poor families?  Do we measure this by the actual number of poor families or by the percent of poor families?

Is success the same number or percentage of poor families but in better housing conditions?  Is it the same number or percentage but in better housing conditions that are in economically segregated neighborhoods?

The departure I would argue our times and today’s turbulence mandate is that we do not conflate all these.  That we exercise discipline in shaping policy and programs so that as we attempt to solve for the problem of housing inadequacy, we do not operate under the misguided belief that we are mitigating poverty.

A serious outcomes discussion will be hard.  Harder than hard.  Why?  Because this means choices and this means hard choices.  And the one set of choices we must make also happens to be the one set of choices we community developers are not hard wired to make:  battlefield reality choices.  I submit to you that until you on the front lines begin to modulate the distress inevitable to the challenges presented by triage, our communities will not have the capacity to authorize this conversation.  We will continue to “help” everyone and accomplish little.

As hard as an outcomes conversation is, it pales in conversation to the one we must have about inputs.  For while outcomes is about allocating resources based on strategy, inputs is about allocating accountability based on responsibility.

In our failing schools in Norfolk or Durham or Phoenix, who is responsible for Johnny not being able to read?  Is is a cadre of poor educators?  Is it the community of adults not involved in their neighbors’ children’s lives?  Is it the parents, many who probably never should have been parents in the first place?

In our current and worsening obesity epidemic, who is responsible for the fat kid in fourth grade who can’t learn because her electrolytes are out of balance and whose breakfast was two candy bars and a Red Bull and whose dinner will be a 4,000 calorie salty, trans-fat bomb?  Is it Hardees?  Coca Cola?  Is it the school that provides pizza for lunch?  Is it Mom who is alone, Dad who abandoned the family?

In our struggling tax credit housing, who is responsibility for the failure to set enough capital replacement reserves to address aging roofs and boilers?  Who is responsible for the social costs of concentrating 120 low-income families, none with legitimate 12th grade reading or math skills, into one apartment complex that happens to be in an already overly poor neighborhood?  Is it the non profit housing agency that developed the property?  The state housing finance agency with the QAP full of perverse incentives for creating such projects?  Politically active middle and upper middle income neighborhoods that control the zoning debate and keep mixed income rental housing out of their neighborhoods?  The mortgage interest deduction that distorts markets in order to satisfy the real estate and home builders lobbies?

Invariably these inputs conversations are linked to the outcomes dialogue.  So the question remains:  what does a new kind of community development look like?

I believe to answer this, we must focus on the goal we are trying to achieve, and I am convinced the first order of business is to focus all of our attention not on parents and grandparents but on kids.  And for their success, all energy must point towards helping them become productive adults.

The implication for community developers is twofold:  if you must build housing units, then in these turbulent times, do so with the following principles in mind:

  1. Rehab whenever possible before you consider new construction, regardless of the incentive system.  Rehabilitation is more labor intensive, puts more people to work, reuses materials, does not consume land, and so does not tend to worsen jobs-housing spatial mismatches.  If the incentives remain disproportionately in support of new construction, work to change that.
  2. Build more multifamily units than single family units.  Multifamily units consume less land, reduce unit costs, increase affordability, and create the potential for sufficient purchasing power to be created in support of neighborhood-serving retail.  If the incentives remain disproportionally in support of single family development, work to change that.
  3. Locate your units where the jobs are.  Most struggling families cannot afford to travel significant distances to find work.  Most of the work they find will be work that pays between $8-$20 an hour, hardly enough for gas at $4-5 a gallon, to say nothing of car and insurance payments.  This you know.  If the disincentives remain disproportionally in weighted against your efforts to locate units near jobs, work to change that.
  4. Build mixed income projects.  The last thing mom needs – or wants – is to go to work as a cashier from nine to five and come home to a neighborhood full of cashiers and a lot of unemployed neighbors.  Kids need to see success to imagine being upwardly mobile

The next few years of community development will be marked by tight credit.  While there will be some loosening of underwriting, the days of low FICO score and meager savings being enough and tiny downpayments for a home are over.  And rightly so.  Demand for good rental units will remain, and that brings with it a whole host of ancillary opportunities.

The opportunity to push against sprawl.  The opportunity to push for inclusionary zoning.  The opportunity to push for mixed-income neighborhoods through mixed-income development.  The opportunity to take a labor but not materials-intensive approach.  These are ways we should be going about our work.

And each creates a chance to educate and to lead.  To ask questions of defenders of the status quo.  To force the state housing finance agency to lend differently, to allocate tax credits differently.  To push against local planning commissions and city councils who would keep all the poor in the one neighborhood or ward that is invariably on the other side of the tracks.

Of course this approach costs more in the short run.  So our system will be asked to adapt.  It will be asked to validate an approach that is more costly on the front end, and so you will find on top of an outcomes and an inputs challenge, we have a math problem.

With scarce resources in a world where this is the new and lasting normal, how those resources are deployed is the central policy question all our work requires us to confront.  What do I mean when I say we have a math problem?

Today we house 100 families with $15M, $3-4M of which is subsidized.  The result is we have a 100 units in a distressed neighborhood.  100 poorly built units that will require more maintenance than the system budgeted for. 100 units with close to 100 poor families in them. 100 poor families many miles from 90 jobs.  100 families of whom maybe 25 actually have job skills.  100 families of whom most are not married, the surest path to multi-generational poverty.  100 families of whom most have kids before the family so much as opened a savings account, nevermind had income enough to set aside.  100 families most of whom cannot really read and write at an 8th grade level.

In this coming era of less resources than ever, the math problem is striking.  Now we have the same 100 families.  The market suggests the costs are about the same – $15M – but the subsidy we have is less, down to $2M.  With gap financing downsized, we can now serve not 100 families but 80.

The math is really a fork in the road.  Down one path we can use the exact same tools and feed into the exact same system as before, and try to serve those 80 families with half to two thirds of the subsidy we’ve grown accustomed to.  We serve those families the exact same way, but we serve less of them.

The result?  We have 80 units in a distressed neighborhood.  80 poorly built units that will require more maintenance than the system budgeted for. 80 units with close to 80 poor families in them. 80 poor families many miles from 60 jobs.  80 families of whom maybe 20 actually have job skills.  80 families of whom most are not married, the surest path to multi-generational poverty.  80 families of whom most have kids before the family so much as opened a savings account, nevermind had income enough to set aside.  80 families most of whom cannot really read and write at an 8th grade level.

The other path is different, and so we have a hard choice to make.  A choice that has to do with outcomes – what are the goals we’re working towards.  A choice that has to do with the inputs that shape our work – how do we as community developers think about the issues of accountability and responsibility.

This other path would rehab existing homes rather than build new.  It would focus on multi-family rental rather than single family and rather than on home ownership.  It would develop where there are jobs, not where the land is cheapest.  And it would build mixed-income projects.

This other path is harder and more expensive.  So not only would it stress the system and invite push back from your partners and other usual players and allies, but its higher costs would mean reduced output.  Instead of 80 families, perhaps we are now talking about 60 or 70 families.  And for any of us in this field, that means, in effect, saying no or looking the other way in some form from the other 30-40 families part of our original 100.

But I would submit that for those who think we would not be serving 30-40 and leaving them out in the cold, let me suggest a different perspective.

In my view we are failing nearly all of the 100 families we try today to serve.  We certainly are failing any of them whose children’s trajectory suggests they will become just like their mom.

The future I suggest, going down the harder path, the one to make us think and work differently, the one to really compel us as community developers to mature to a whole new way, tries not to reach 100 poorly but 60-70 well.

I can only speak for myself.  I would much prefer to do the work that would result in 60-70 successes than 90 failures of every 100 attempts.  Now I am totally aware of the risk this approach entails and the exposure to criticism of folding utilitarian math on the moral compass of the community development field.  But I reject that argument.  The basis for this choice is not that 60-70 successes is better than 10, but that it is less than just to validate a system grounded not on a social contract or even grace, but luck.  Good luck if you’re born in the shadow of Self Help’s great work in Durham, bad luck if you happen to be born in Fayetteville where no such organization exists.

We are at a historic inflection point.  You have the chance to keep doing more of the same, or really, truly do something different.  When your housing production is connected – deliberately and measurably – to the knowledge of how to grow and cook spinach, you’ll be there.